WFMZ Meteorologist Dan Skeldon is not a big believer of long range predictions for winter weather.

“I do like a good hurricane forecast as there is accuracy there,” Skeldon said.

But winter weather, not so much.

Skeldon said for three years we have been in a La Niña climate pattern where, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, “winter temperatures are warmer than normal in the south and cooler than normal in the north. La Niña can also lead to a more severe hurricane season.”

Skeldon said we are currently in a strong El Niño pattern.

NOAA explains in an El Niño pattern, “the warmer waters cause the Pacific jet stream to move south of its neutral position. With this shift, areas in the northern U.S. and Canada are dryer and warmer than usual. But in the U.S. Gulf Coast and Southeast, these periods are wetter than usual and have increased flooding.”

Skeldon said both La Niña and El Niño are major players in winter weather but not the only players. Meteorologists watch the weather in Greenland and Iceland and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation patterns.

The question is whether El Niño will hold strong all winter. If so, Skeldon said we will be near average winter temperatures and slightly higher snow than the average 32 inches for the Lehigh Valley.

“If you want more snow, you want El Niño to weaken,” Skeldon said.

In 1995-1996, the area saw 75.4 inches of snow. In 2013, 68.1 inches of snow was recorded and in 2022, 58.1 inches of snow was recorded.

In winter 2019-2020, there was 5.3 inches of snow. Last year, we had 6.3 inches of snow.

“We are not expecting major after major snowstorms this winter,” Skeldon said. “There is nothing unusual about the winter temperatures at this point.” He said it is tough to get bitter cold temperatures with warming temperatures. Much of this has to do with climate change.

In preparation, Skeldon suggests residents “knock the rust” off the snow shovels, make sure equipment is running and prepare for winter weather. He also reminded residents to familiarize themselves with winter driving with reduced speeds and increased following distances.

There are four meteorologists at WFMZ including: Skeldon, Matt Broderick, Kellie McGlynn and Clayton Stiver. When an impending storm is forecast, all four meet to determine the forecast, the snow inch count and the type of snow - how readily snow will accumulate and how this will impact the Lehigh Valley.

“November and December have become less snowy,” Skeldon said. “Seasons have shifted a little bit. March has become a snowy month.”

Skeldon also said February is generally the snowiest month.

“I love the challenge and pressure to get every forecast right more than anything,” Skeldon said. Because WFMZ meteorologists forecast for a large area, it is challenging with high stress.

“We take forecasting seriously,” Skeldon said. He said they realize the impact storms have on the economy, commuting, school delays and closures and snow plow operators.

Are the forecasts always 100% correct? No. Skeldon said when it isn’t correct perhaps due to a shift in a pattern, he receives emails and telephone calls. “We have a bigger audience in the winter with extra attention during storms.” Skeldon said he answers every email he receives.

Skeldon, who lives in New Tripoli with his wife Amanda and two children, is originally from New England. At a young age, he experienced the blizzard of ‘78 where they received 55 inches of snow in one storm. In 1985, Hurricane Gloria went through the town where he lived and dropped a tree right on his bedroom. Fortunately the family was fine. That was when he decided to pursue the career of meteorology.

He earned a Bachelor of Science degree in meteorology from Cornell University in 1998 and earned the American Meteorological Society Seal of Approval for broadcast meteorologists. He has spoken at the National Hurricane Conference in New Orleans.

He joined the WFMZ weather team in August 2015 as a freelance meteorologist and became a full-time member of the team in 2017.

“I love my job,” Skeldon said. “I love coming to work and getting paid for what I love. Weather keeps you humble; Mother Nature is a great educator. Every storm is different and learning never stops. I get upset when a forecast goes wrong.”

According to the WFMZ website, “Regarding the sometimes inexact science of weather forecasting, Dan likes to joke: ‘Hated or loved is the weatherman, for skies that are rainy or blue; for let it be known when a forecast is blown, he shares in the misery too.’”